SECTION THREE: TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
Here we will set out two possible scenarios for unification based on the theoretical principles elaborated above. Both of these scenarios are arrangements for peaceful transition. It must be noted that these two scenarios are merely envisaged approaches; they are not the only options—we are discussing them as points of reference. The most important part of peaceful transition will be the political negotiations between major powers. The attitudes of major global leaders will be the deciding factor for our final approach.
One: Scenario One: Core Country Transition
1. The Basic Idea
The basic idea for the core country transition approach is to unite the major powers in the world to form a superior coalition in accordance with the three major principles of legality, feasibility, and justice. This superior coalition should move from loosely bound to close-knit in quick succession, resulting in one closely integrated entity that functions like one country.
This superior coalition should become a country with special significance. It should have a relatively fixed jurisdiction and population; unified authorities, policies, and decrees issued by relevant centralized agencies; and it should be able to exercise full unified administration.
This “country” will be distinguished from the average country by the great mission upon its shoulders—that is, leading human society into global unity. It must continuously absorb new, mature countries to expand its reach; it must compel and supervise the limitation of science and technology development across all countries; it must coordinate the economic, social, and cultural development of the world; it must also establish political, economic, social, and cultural systems for the future unified society. This country must be the standard for the whole world and the leader of all nations.
We will call this country the “core country,” delineating it to be the center figure and leader of the world. All countries outside of the core country will be known as ordinary countries. Ordinary countries will all have a certain amount of national sovereignty, but they will have an obligation to obey the unified leadership and policies of the core country on the subject of unification.
The unity of the core country will be guaranteed through a core country constitution and a strong national mechanism. The parliament, courts, army, and police of the core country will all be crucial tools to ensure its stability and long-term unity. Though the core country will have evolved from the concept of the superior coalition, it will have discarded the characteristics of a coalition and will function more like one unified country.
As an absolute and powerful nation, the core country will be tasked with the responsibility and obligation as well as corresponding authority to lead the world towards unification. Many of the decrees and policies of the core country will have compulsory administrative power; ordinary countries should and must obey them.
The establishment of a core country does not signal the realization of the unified society but is merely the first step in the right direction. Much work will remain after the core country is established, and a further period of transition will still be necessary. During this transitional period, ethnic, religious, linguistic, social, economic, cultural, and artistic issues as well as people’s living habits and moral values will be integrated further. Once such integration reaches maximum maturity, the time for unification will come.
2. The Specific Plan
According to the principle of legality, we know that the minimum standard for the core country will be the 5 + 4 condition. This has established the basic framework for the core country’s makeup.
a. Analysis of the Five Major Countries
The feasibility factor focuses on the overall strength of core country members. As the five most powerful countries in the world, the five major countries undoubtedly pass this test; however, the power of these five countries alone is not enough—the other most powerful countries of the world should also be absorbed.
The element of justice focuses on the question of broad representation. The five major countries as well as the other members of the core country must satisfy a broad range of representation. First, we should examine the representation of the five major countries.
There are four representative indicators for the principle of justice: population, race, geography, and religion. In terms of population, the total population of these five countries is estimated to be nearly two billion, which is a sufficiently large number; therefore, we will focus on the other three indicators in the following discussion.
i. The United States
Race: more than 10 percent black, a portion yellow, but overwhelmingly white (80 percent)
Geography: The United States can represent North America.
Religion: Americans are mainly Protestant or Catholic Christian. In order not to complicate matters, we will not subdivide religious denominations; therefore, the United States represents Christianity.
Geography: Russia spans Europe and Asia, but its political and economic center as well as its main population are all in Europe; therefore, Russia will represent Europe.
Religion: Russians mainly subscribe to Orthodox Christianity, which is a branch of Christianity; therefore, Russia will represent Christianity.
Religion: 90 percent of Chinese citizens are atheists, and China is a country that has been relatively apathetic towards religion throughout history. However, China is one of the main centers of Buddhism, and though Buddhists account for a small portion of the Chinese population, the overall number is still large due to China’s huge population; thus, China can represent Buddhism.
iv. The United Kingdom
Religion: 80 percent of British people are Protestants, while others are mostly Catholic; thus, the United Kingdom represents Christianity.
To summarize, apart from China, which represents the yellow race, all four other countries represent the white race. There is no country to represent the black race. Geographically, Africa, South America, and Australia are not represented. Religiously, Islam does not have a representative among the five major countries.
b. Choosing Other Member States
According the to the 5 + 4 condition, once the five permanent members of the Security Council have been granted candidacy, we must choose four more countries to satisfy the legitimacy of the core country. In order for the core country to have truly wide representation, all the most powerful countries of the world must be considered.
After our previous analysis of the five major countries, we found that racially, there is no country to represent the black race; geographically, Africa, South America, and Australia are not represented; and religiously, Islam does not have a representative.
In order to satisfy the need for justice, the above missing elements must be accounted for. At the same time, feasibility must also be deliberated, and manageability and integration difficulty must also be taken into consideration. Specifically speaking, the territorial continuity, living standard gap, as well as ethnic and religious status of countries must be considered.
In terms of territorial contiguity, it would undoubtedly be ideal for all member countries to be geographically connected; however, simple analysis would show that this ideal situation is not compatible with the need for broad geographical representation. The continents of South America and Australia are already far removed from the territories occupied by the five major countries. In light of this, we will strive for the territories of the core country to be mostly connected but allow for a few overseas territories.
With regard to the differences in people’s living standards, a percapita income gap of more than ten times will make integration very difficult; however, this tenfold limit is merely an estimation based on experience and is not conclusive. If we are to apply the tenfold limit, we should use the highest percapita income among the five major countries as the standard.
Whether or not the religious and ethnic status of a country is too extreme cannot be measured by specific indicators, so we must rely on comprehensive analysis and universal assessment from the international community.
From the above analysis, we can draw some initial conclusions regarding the selection of additional core country members. The countries selected should have corresponding representation in all aspects without affecting the efficient governance and integration of the core country. Countries with strong national power should also be considered, even if they do not have strong representational power. Exclusion of such countries would not only damage the overall strength of the core country but would also present a threat to global governance.
Two: Scenario Two: World Federation Transition
1. The Framework
Similar to the core country transition approach, the world federation transition approach will also rely on the United Nations and the UN Charter as a basic framework; however, the world federation approach will implement the principles of democracy and human rights more thoroughly. The thought process for the approach is as follows.
The world federation will maintain unified management of the world during the transitional period. Under the federation government, the world will be separated into one central state and a number of autonomous states. The central state will be comprised of the strongest countries in the world, while the autonomous states will be evolved from all other countries. Thus, the central state will essentially be a superior coalition formed to promote unification.
The central state must be comprised of the strongest countries in the world in order to grant the federation government sufficient strength and authority for world governance. According to the three major principles of legality, feasibility, and justice, the constituents of the central state should be the same as the members of the core country.
The other countries in the world will all evolve into autonomous states. These states differ from countries in that they will surrender some of their sovereignty to the world federation government. Their territory and population will remain intact, as will a certain degree of regional management authority.
The world federation approach takes into account the enormous differences in the world and the ensuing need for separate development, which is why it will retain the regional and population statuses of existing countries by transforming them into autonomous states.
During the world federation transitional period, the world will operate under a unified constitution. The world federation will be required to govern global affairs in accordance with this constitution. As time progresses, the federation government will absorb the different autonomous states into the central state according to their levels of maturity. The number of autonomous states will dwindle until there is only one central state left—that is when the unified society will be born.
The world federation approach will embrace democracy more than the core country approach. The world federal government envisaged here will adopt the democratic structure universally recognized in the world today—that is, the separation of powers. Executive power, legislative power, and judicial power will be independent and mutually restrictive of each other. Moreover, the world federation government will adopt dual levels of power separation. Not only will the federation government separate its three branches of power, but it will also separate power between states. Under the administration of the federal constitution, each state will have its own executive, legislative, and judicial branches.
a. The World Federation Government
The executive power of the world federation will be in the hands of the world federal government (hereafter referred to as the “federal government”). The heads of the federal government (federal leaders) will hold the highest federal executive power in the world. These federal leaders should be a committee of three to seven people. (The author is more inclined towards a committee to better avoid dictatorship.)
The federal government will have two major management responsibilities. The first one will be to directly govern the administrative affairs of the central state. At the same time, the highest goal of the federal government will be to lead the world towards unification. Therefore, harmonizing and balancing the world development will be another important task of the federal government.
During the world federation transitional period, the world constitution will give each autonomous state considerable autonomy and the federal government corresponding administrative leadership. The federal government will exercise its authority in accordance with the provisions of the world constitution. Federal leaders will be the chief administrators of the central state as well as the chief commanders of the unification movement. They will be the heads of both the federal government and the central state government.
b. The World Federation Parliament
The World Federation Parliament (hereafter referred to as the “federal parliament”) will be the legislative body of the world federal government. In theory, the federal parliament will be the supreme power of the world federation. The laws promulgated by the federal parliament will set the code of conduct for the entire world, including the federal government. The federal courts will also be governed by the laws promulgated by the federal parliament.
The composition of the federal assembly should fully reflect the principles of democracy and human rights. The members of the federal parliament should be elected and dispatched by the various states.
Since the central state will be comprised of the most powerful countries of the world, it will take up a great portion of the parliament based on population ratio. Autonomous states evolved from smaller countries may not even receive one parliamentary seat, depending on their population. However, all states should have the right to express their own opinions and represent themselves; thus, the distribution of parliament members should lean in favor of the autonomous states.
In addition to formulating and voting for various laws and resolutions, the members of the federal parliament should also participate in the election of federal leaders. Since the members of the federal parliament will all represent their own people, their election of federal leaders will be a universal manifestation of democracy and human rights for all.
The federal parliament should also represent the people of the world to supervise and comment on the federal government’s administration as well as debate and justify major policies and decrees. If a fair percentage of votes can be reached, the federal parliament should also have the power to impeach certain unsatisfactory federal leaders.
Apart from the world federal parliament, all states should have their own parliaments as well. The federal parliament will be responsible to the people of the world, whereas state parliaments will be responsible to the people of their state. Federal leaders will be supervised by both the federal parliament and the central state parliament.
c. The Supreme Court of the World Federation
The Supreme Court of the World Federation (hereby known as the “federal court”) will be the judicial body of the world federal government. Its main duty will be to safeguard the cause of unification from a judicial level. It must ensure the purity of the world federation in the transitional period; ensure that the responsibilities, rights, and obligations granted to all states by the world constitution are implemented and fulfilled; and it must safeguard the world constitution itself.
The federal court will not accept litigations from within the states, as that will be the jurisdiction of state courts. Cross-state civil and commercial disputes will be handled by special judicial departments, not the federal court.
Half of the judges on the federal court will come from the central state, and the other half will be selected from autonomous states. This will ensure that the rights of the autonomous states be well represented along with the rights of the central state.
The federal court will have the power to interpret the federal constitution and declare certain acts as unconstitutional. The federal court will also accept lawsuits concerning unconstitutional actions.
2. The Election of Federal Heads and Parliament Members, and the Manifestation of the Principles of Democracy and Human Rights
The leaders of the federal government will hold the highest federal executive power in the world, so the universal and democratic election of these leaders will be the most important indicator of the federation’s justice. In order to properly design the democratic election process of federal leaders, let us first analyze the power characteristics of the federal leaders.
It has already been stated that the federal leaders will directly govern the central state and rely on the strength of the central state to lead global affairs; therefore, federal leaders will have some degree of control over the autonomous states and they will be the highest commanders in all matters of global unification. Federal leaders are not only responsible to the central state and the federal government, but to all the autonomous states as well. In this respect, all autonomous states should have the right to elect federal leaders.
We may propose the following design as a specific voting procedure. The central state will first conduct internal discussion and vote on candidates; the candidates with the highest votes will be recommended to the parliament and voted on by all members of the parliament. This means that the final decision of federal leaders will be made by the federal parliament, not the central state.
Since the representatives of the federal parliament are determined by population ratio in favor of autonomous states, the central state will receive no privileges in the parliament. The representatives in the parliament will all vote in the interests of their own people, so the final vote should largely reflect the will of the general population. Theoretically speaking, this will be a democratic election of the people.
The representatives of the federal parliament will be decided by each state. Each state may use their own historical traditions to determine the procedures for representative election. Representatives will be selected according to state legislature, not federal policy.
As representatives on the federal parliament, members will not only elect federal leaders on behalf of their people, but they will also exercise a series of other legislative, political, and supervisory powers in the context of global affairs. The world federation transition will take into consideration the multifaceted rights of all peoples in the world; it will be a true manifestation of democracy and human rights.