Section III Time for Human Being to Be Extinctive
Spoken essentially, as a kind of biologic species, human being has natural process of birth to death, and the natural strengths can annihilate any livings finally, including human being. According to analysis of chapter three, we can know that if we can receive what Nature offers, the human being will be annihilated after 5 billion of years. This is remote thing, so the remote disaster needs no worry.
Then, if the time for human being to annihilate is remote similarly, it needs no worries from us naturally. If the time is ten thousand years late, it even needs no further worries. But if the time is only 100 years or ten thousand years, we deserve worrying about, or we will be the great sinner in the history. We should give a serious analysis to time of human being extinction.
When the science reaches level of present days, the further technologic developments can’t depend on the direct experiences to solve the problem, while the scientific theories have been guides for the technology to progress. The combination of science to technology happened soon after Industrial Revolution when the great productivity of Industrial Revolution make various kinds of industries mushroomed, but soon people discovered that technologic practices were hard to improve more without guides of scientific theories. Only guides of scientific theories can make technologic invention and innovation a kind of rational process, and the level of productivity can improve faster and more advanced products can be possible to produce. Scientific theory has new breakthrough, people will normally explore the contents able to change into scientific and technologic products as possible as they can in the new theories.
Uncountable scientific and technologic practices can reflect this kind of objective fact: when an intermediate ranked subject has theoretical breakthrough, its produced series of scientific and technologic products can greatly change the lifestyle of people, while a big subject can change lives of whole world. These scientific and technologic products have contents of both benefiting and harming human being.
Due to mentioned causes, we can take breakthrough of scientific theory as main line to approximately deduce the time of human being annihilation.
Actually dependence of present scientific theories can deduce that the annihilation measure is sure to emerge, and the mentioned Nano robots which can be copied constantly and boost great small asteroid to hit Earth, and then result into holistic atomic combustion in sea or crust, all these are the annihilation measure and able to conclude according to present scientific theories. However, since the theoretical rank of present science is not so high, it is very difficult to research and produce relevant annihilation measure according to present level. So we need the theoretical breakthrough.
Since physics is in central position of field of Natural science, we can analyze the time for annihilation measure to occur according to the cyclic breakthrough and fission acceleration principles of science and technology with the reference of physics developments.
Fruits of Galileo are the mark of foundation of modern physics and first ranked revolutionary theories of modern physics cyclic breakthrough. According to the theory, the fruits of Galileo are sure to guide great developments of science and technology, humane society hence will change greatly. But it is not the case. The birth of this fruit failed to result into compound and comprehensive effects to humane society, because the birth of Galileo fruits was 1.5 centuries before Industrial Revolution when people failed to realize to utilize the scientific theories into technologic practices. This fruits failed to immediately develop into series of scientific and technologic products and boost the long-term developments of technologic practices, but this won’t show that first ranked revolutionary theories of modern physics have no great powers.
Newton mechanics is second ranked revolutionary theory of cyclic breakthrough of modern physics; after its foundation, its effects to human being world are obvious. This kind of effects cover many aspects, one most obvious one is the guide to the technologic practices. In aspect of practical guides, it is Newton mechanics that boot the further developments of Industrial Revolution, while the further developments of Industrial Revolution were unimaginative without Newton mechanics. The named second Industrial Revolution refers to the stage for the combination of scientific theories and technologic practices; this is a stage when Industrial Revolution has the explosive strengths. In this stage, among series scientific theories with most important guiding effects to technologic practices, Newton mechanics is sure the most important one.
But the guiding effects of Newton mechanics to technologic practices and essential effects to humane society can’t show immediately, there is a time difference of about 100 years. One cause is that there is a process for the theory to apply to practices and any theory needs time difference to implement its guiding effects; in addition, when Newton mechanics was founded, the idea of applying theory into technologic practices failed to be widely received. Though Industrial Revolution occurred half century after Newton mechanics was founded, people failed to realize the significance of combining science to technology till several dozens years late.
When we clearly see the profound changes of Industrial Revolution to humane society and fact of wealth produced by human being in these over 200 years had exceeded many times of total wealth produced in all former time, these can show that Newton mechanics and even revolutionary theories of field of physics can result into so great energies.
Relativism and quantum mechanics is the third ranked revolutionary theory of modern physics, this theory emerged in early 20 century. Since the scientific power of this theory is very great, so it is hard to move this kind of power. However, with mark of exploration of B-bomb, the third ranked revolutionary theory spent only about 40 years from birth to successful application, because people obviously realized the importance and possibilities of scientific theory to apply to technologic practices. Hence they devoted great passion to each aspect of scientific theory to applying in technologic practices, while people dared to invest in this aspect due to the obvious and unified realization.
The great power of three ranked cycling of modern physics can be clearly shown with only two examples: firstly, footprints of present human being have been on Moon, and the plan of walking on Mars is in preparation, while the spaceflight machines without humane driving has flied out of solar system and into deep place of universe. All these are in myth in old time. Secondly, present one h-bomb has power equal to TNT of over 56 million tons. What is this like? It shows that the power of one bomb is equal to that produced by explosive loaded in 1 million trains (they can surround one circle of Earth). The gaining of mentioned scientific and technologic fruits are mainly depending on relativism and quantum mechanics in aspect of main guiding theories.
According to mentioned analysis, if fourth ranked cycling of modern physics can have breakthrough, its technologic products guided by the revolutionary theories can easily result into annihilation measure, it is natural. The cause if that the three ranked revolutionary theories will result into the scientific and technologic products with strong destructive powers, which has the power nearly to annihilate human being. In addition, according to three ranked revolutionary theories, they can actually produce relevant annihilation measure, but it is technologically difficult to research and produce the annihilation measure guided by three ranked revolutionary theories, we can’t judge whether it can produce, but it is sure to produce.
Then, as a subject in the central position of natural sciences, physics of four ranked revolutionary theories has greater power than that of three ranked, which can add to abilities till it can annihilate human being.
Then how long will four ranked cycling of modern physics can have breakthrough?
It was not more than 100 years from foundation of first ranked revolutionary theory with representative of Galileo physics to second rank of Newton mechanics in modern physics. It was not more than 200 years from second ranked to three ranked.
Hence we can predict the cycle of fourth ranked modern physics according to these. Any scientific theory should need time to have breakthrough, it is process of uncountable scientific and technologic fruits to continuously accumulate and results of uncountable scientists to work hard for many years. The revolutionary theories of fourth ranked is much profound than that of third ranked, so the intermediate fruits needing by such kind of revolutionary theory is more than that of third revolution, and it naturally needs long time.
However, our thinking should not be so independently on problem. We know that scientific accumulation will show the principle of fission acceleration. With the further scientific and technologic development, science and technology is continuously forming branches, and the separated scientific subjects and technologic types are continuously detailed separated, and each scientific subject and technologic type have employed a group pf scientists to work in researches and develop according to principle of cycling breakthrough and continuously produce the fruits. Hence the accumulation speed of fruits of science and technology will be surely faster and faster, which supports the requirements of superior ranked science, so the scientific fruits will need more to accumulate and more time is needed.
Physics developments are following mentioned principle thoroughly. But we should consider character of modern physics in four ranked cycling breakthroughs. The relativism was founded one hundred years ago, with reference to former cycling period, it is natural for the four ranked cycling to realize after 1.5 centuries. With consideration to the time of theory to apply to practice, we can conclude as follows: annihilation measure is sure to result into with time of no more than 200 years.
The mentioned deduction is very conservative, for several obvious elements fail to include. According to present scientific theories, the deduced annihilation measure will emerge before further developments. In addition, scientific theories and science and technology are realizing breakthrough in other subjects and types. While the fields out of physics are mostly possible to result into annihilation measure, just like that present destructive measures of atomic weapons results of physics, but the gene poisonous elements are that of biology, so annihilation measures in other fields are sure to result into within 200 years.
The earliest annihilation measures are probably mastered in hands of countries, or several kind persons. But the principle of extreme measure“ three addition” tells us that with further scientific and technologic developments, the types of annihilation measure will become more and more, while the fields of mastering annihilation measures will become wider and wider. In addition, the types of annihilation measures will be mastered more and more by groups such as countries, but then develop into being mastered by individual, and sooner or later they will be mastered by person daring to use them.
In the same time, if the science and technology is still developing, after development ranks of scientific theories reach relevant level, the supported scientific experiment and scientific and technologic products are similarly possible to result into casual annihilation disasters. Careless experiments and uses of scientific and technologic products may result into human being extinction, it is as risky as using annihilation measure on the human being, so when the annihilation measure appears, its annihilation powers are possibly emerging at any time. This kind of power will possibly explore, which is our concern to some people with mental disorders, they may use these measures purposely. There are scientist using casually experiments and uses of scientific and technologic products. So once annihilation measure emerges, holistic fate of human being is in dangerous, it will be very difficult to save human being.
Anyway, we can estimate a time of exploration of annihilation powers: review the use time of extreme measures in each historic times, such as the atomic weapons of present days, they are used in wars after researched out. Transgenic biological poisonous elements are not used yet, because it was just produced after dozen of years. The mentioned measures were used soon after produced, while some were used slowly, and the time was only several dozen of years.
Of course the annihilation measure are essentially different with former extreme measures, since the user may perish together when using this kind of measure, so the rational person or person with no intention of destruction won’t use this kind of measure positively. In addition, this kind of measure is comprehensively disastrous to whole human being, so when this kind of measure emerges, each rational authoritative institution may have the control abilities further stronger than other extreme measures. This is the factor for which this kind of measure is not easy to use, which this factor determines that the time to use this kind of measure will be postponed a lot.
But with the postponed time, other factors will be easier and easier to give the annihilation powers:
Firstly, with the science and technology developing into further stage, new annihilation measures will emerge more and more, and it will show following trends:① with the guiding of newer and higher ranked scientific theories, research and production of annihilation measure will become easier and easier;② under the guiding of newer and higher ranked scientific theories, the researched and produced annihilation measures will have stronger powers, while the earliest annihilation measure may need use several or dozen times to annihilate human being, while the new annihilation measure can ends whole human being when used only one time; ③under the guiding of newer and higher ranked scientific theories, the annihilation measures will become smaller and smaller and easier to be portable and convenient, esp. suitable for individual operation. It is like the earliest computer needing a big room to accommodate, but present small computer can be taken in pocket with the more computing abilities. Series of this kind of characters make the annihilation measure easier and easier to be taken and used by individuals.
Secondly, scientific theories can be utilized to the production of killing measures and the civil products. Since the science and technology is uncertain, each scientific theory can’t be completely accurate and safe. When scientific theories develop till the level of supporting annihilation measure, the power of civil products produced under this theoretical guide will be similarly great. On the basic of this, if scientific theories develop further, the power it results into may be greater. So careless uses of products or careless scientific experiments may release 1% and even 0.1% of total powers, but this is enough to eliminate whole human being.
Thirdly, with the movements of time, even strength of annihilation measure is greater; it may become loose some time. But in contrary, there are bad guys who want to revenge society in any time of this world; their revenge desire won’t weaken because of your loose controls to annihilation measures. In contrary, the longer the time, and the stronger the desire to revenge when the controls are loose and find the extreme measure, while there are surely some people to get the extreme measures.
Each mentioned case determines that with the shift of time, the annihilation power is easier to occur. But we still define the annihilation powers as very long, e.g. 300 years after emerging earliest annihilation measure. It can be guessed that human being annihilation will occur within 500 years.
300 years for the annihilation power to explore is an estimate, while its foundation is to consider the case of humane history killing measure to be used no more than 50/60 years when used, in equal, one kinds of extreme measure will emerge within 10 or 20 years. Considering that the uses of annihilation measure are much longer than other extreme measures, according to this ratio, we can conclude that it will cost 300 years. This conclusion is very conservative of course, spoken simply, it just thinks about the time of earliest annihilation measure to use. Of course after the earliest annihilation measure emerged, with continuous scientific and technologic developments, there will be various kinds of different annihilation measures appearing, while these annihilation measures are easier to produce and gain and convenient to use, so its extinctive powers are surely easier to carry on. But the after annihilation measures fail to consider their extinctive power.
Totally, the estimate of human being to be extinctive within 500 years is very conservative. It has considered double conservative factors: the estimated time of annihilation measure is conservative. In addition, according to logic judge, Industrial Revolution was thing over 200 years before, when it first occurred, science and technology started on the base of almost none. After it develops till now, universal airship can send us on Moon, while modern transportation and communication technology has joined whole world into a whole, and the big-scaled computer can compute over total amount of humane brains since history of human being, and atomic bomb and the gene biologic weapons have improved several million times of destructive powers. On the base of such great power, it will develop 500 years; it is equal to double time since Industrial Revolution to present days. In this period, the scientific and technologic developments are based on great amount of knowledge and developments of advanced scientific researching measures and scientific researching ways besides the fact that the investments of materials and finances are more than total amount of early time. According to fission accumulation principle, we can know that present scientific and technologic developments are much more than those of yesterday, even two times of the time needed by Industrial Revolution, so we can see that how many fruits it can produce on the base of scientific and technologic developments.
Hence, if the science and technology continues to develop, human being annihilation will be much earlier than conservative estimate of 500 years.
Deduction of time for human being extinction gives us a very important inspiration, which is that it is time for us to adopt measures to strictly limit the scientific and technologic developments.
Appearance of annihilation measure will be not late than 200 years, and human being annihilation 500, these mean that it is not too early for us to adopt the measures to limit scientific and technologic developments. Since many scientific discoveries were casual ones, so were many technological fruits, while Nature gives us very long time, then only a few casual discoveries and gains will become great when accumulated. After science and technology has developed such level, with addition to fact that a few of accumulation to the technologic and scientific fruits can push human being into abysm of annihilation. Moreover, there are so many accumulations.
It is a regret that the limitation of wisdom of human being made us have the mentality of no affirmation and feeling of being numb to development, and human being is not conscious to their circumstances. So the great destructive power of science and technology fails to realize, as for each emerging scientific and technologic achievement and arranging scientific and technologic researching and developing project, even the elite politician and scientist fails to realize its negative effects and harms, and the adoption of the essential defensive measures is a very remote thing. Humane elites care more about enjoyments of various kinds of fruits brought about by science to human being, as for the various kinds of measures adopted; they just cure the obvious diseases. As for that the science is sure to result into extinctive disasters, any authoritative leaders fail to realize essentially.
The time to leave human being to think is not so much indeed.