The analysis of last chapter can show that the human being is sure to annihilate due to the scientific and technological developments if we have no proper measure to stop scientific and technological developments. Science and technology has the abilities to annihilate human being, while the annihilation measure will be used by some people once appearing.
Since the holistic survival of human being is very important, the more plentiful the attestation foundation of self-annihilation of human being, the better. Then we should further analyze the problem of human being self-annihilation from other aspects.
It is strictly said that any creature will be born and then dean. If the self- annihilation of human being is very remote, our present worries are unnecessary; but if this kind of annihilation is very near, this problem is sure most important one, since no other problem can be more important than avoiding human being annihilation, including environmental problem, resource problem, population problem and poverty problem etc which are present concerns in international society. All these problems are subordinate problems compared to the holistic existence of human being. So in this chapter, we will specially discuss the problem of time for human being to annihilate and research and evaluated the other relevant problems about the self-annihilation.
Section I Extreme Measure Can't Be Cancelled
All former discussions can give us following clear realization: what extreme measure we have now is the destructive one, and we will have annihilation measure in future. Due to the inevitable use of the extreme measure, we will continuously be spoiled by the destructive measures and live in terror and pains all the time, till the day when we are all ended by our annihilation measure produced by us.
Human nature has great character: he can imagine all the good things for his dreams, but hope to be lucky for the crisis. Confronted with such gloomy result, people may think that whether any kinds of measure has a kind of anti-measure to counteract it, and whether we can find a kind of perfect measure to balance the harms resulted from the destructive and annihilation measures?
The natural principles have really cases of negative strengths to balance positive ones. Newtonian Mechanics tells us that when a force is implemented on an objective, the objective will give you a counterforce; the atomic nucleus has the positive electricity, it has the negative electricity in outer layer to balance; according to the theory of Big Bang, with combination of existence of material in natural world, scientist concluded that there must be anti-material to exist, but they really found the anti-material in late time, which is a miracle. There is combination and decomposition in chemistry; there is differential coefficient and integral in mathematics, etc.
Due to the existence of so many natural cases such as the positive and negative counteraction or positive and negative corresponding and balance etc, many philosophers and politicians are willing to produce a kind of theory, e.g. any harmful measure is not frightening, any kinds of produced measure will meet a counteracting one. So any destructive strength produced by human being will have the corresponding decompounding and balancing strengths. Any destruction produced by science and technology will meet a counteracting science and technology to give balance. This is like a shield to defend spear, or penicillin, erythromycin and selectomycin able to cure any kinds of diseases.
Indeed, it is impossible to counteract the destructive and annihilation measures, the reasons are as follows:
Firstly, any kind of emerged measure will have a long time to produce a counteracting measure. Take the defense of toxin gene as an example, after a kind of new virus emerge, it needs a process of repeated experiments and researches to produce a new medicine. If it is attacked by toxin gene, its counteracting medicine will need a period of time to produce, and during this period of time, many people will die, and this kind of thing has occurred already.
Second, some measures won’t have the counteracting ones. As for two kinds of extinctive measures including atomic weapon and toxin gene in present day, we can assume that there will be corresponding medicine produced after a period of time, but the atomic weapon has no counteracting balances. As for the explosion of A-bomb, present theoretical scientific foundation can’t imagine a kind of counteracting weapon to eliminate the strengths of B-bomb. If a B-bomb explodes among people, it is inevitable to avoid the destruction to human being, unless it won’t explode.
Third, the most ideal case is that each kind of measure can find counteracting measure (this kind of ideal case never exists indeed), but the research and production of counteracting measure are sure to need a period of time. With more and more extinctive measures including future ones, each kind of measure should need time to find the counteracting measures, so the time difference should accumulated and the human being will be exposed to the background of no counteracting measures in a period of long time. This can show that the most ideal case can only reduce the frequencies of using extreme measures and resulting into harms, but it can’t eliminate this kind of harms. So after the extinctive measure emerges, only one time of its harm can result into the extinction of whole human being.
Section II Involuntary Disaster
First, careless experiment
In fact the extinction of human being may be caused by careless experiments besides the use of the destructive measures by those purposeful people.
We all know that many scientific discoveries were gained unexpectedly when having experiment, so the scientific fruits are not the intended ones when implementing the experiment, which is common in scientific developments. Since the science and technology is uncertain, those involuntary discoveries may be more important than the primary defined research goals.
Discovery of X-rays, honored as three great discoveries of late 19 century, was such kind of unexpected success. In the end of 19 century, physics circle was commonly caring about the essential problems of cathode rays, so a lot of physical scientists were researching on this topic, including German physical scientist Roentgen. One time when he was experimenting, unconsciously he put one parcel of photos besides the equipments of experiment. After the experiment ended, he found that the sealed photo were sensitized, which was impossible thing in common cases. This occasional event made Roentgen think a lot, and then he repeated this experiment for many time, which proved that this was a unknown rays passed through the sealed paper, and then it was named as X rays.
Discovery of X-rays has great scientific values; its application has not only provided physics with a strong tool but also boost greatly the developments of medical technology. Roentgen was also awarded with first Nobel physics prize due to his discovery of X rays.
Penicillin was also an unexpected discovery in lab. British bacteriologist Fleming was mainly devoted into the researches of curing the cut infection. But he failed to succeed after hard works for many years. One time he found casually that the surround of fungus in the culture medium appeared a circle of blank; the grape cocci which cause the cut to infected and mattery disappeared.
Further researches betrayed that it was the fungus which killed the grape cocci, while this kind of fungus is poisonous to the material rather than leucocyte. This could show that it can be used to cure humane diseases, and Fleming named it as penicillin.
Penicillin has save many lives of sick and injured soldiers in World War Two, and became one of three great discoveries besides B-bomb and radar. It is still medicine of special effects to cure many kinds of diseases in present days, and Fleming also won Nobel Prize of 1945.
Scientific discoveries and inventions were uncountable. For example, Newton discovered universal gravitation when he casually observed that the apple fell down from tree. But not all this kinds of casual discoveries can bring benefits to human being; experiments have resulted into disasters some times.
For example, Franklin, famous American politician and scientist, was always interested in electricity, thorough observing the sound of Leyden jar and its produced bright, he thought about the thunder in the sky. He wanted to know whether these tow were the same one. In order to solve this problem, he made a kite with silk fabric, tied one end of kite with thin iron thread, and then led the thunder down, this succeeded in proving that the heaven electricity was thoroughly same with ground electricity.
In fact it is very dangerous to catch the electricity through kite, while Franklin was just lucky to avoid the electrical attack. Others were not so lucky. One year after Franklin’s experiment, Liheman, a Russian physical scientist, led his student to take the same experiment, but he was attacked by thunder and died on the spot.
Franklin also almost died in one electrical experiment. On time when Franklin took an experiment of using a Leyden jar to electrocute turkey, as a result, he was electrocuted to faint. After awakening, he said humorously: “oh my god, I intended to electrocute a turkey, but almost kill a fool as a result.”
There are many cases of scientific experiments resulting into disasters. Nitroglycerin is a kind of strong explosive, used in mineral exploration and road construction etc since invented. But it is not safe, since it will go explored once shook a little or warmed up a little, and its production process is very complex. Nobel kept on the researches of the safety of this kind of explosive, and tried to simplify its production process. His younger brother was helping him.
On third August of 1864, his brother led several technicians to work with simpler way, but it explored, his brother and other 4 persons died on the spot. Nobel happened to go out and escape this disaster.
After accident, Nobel failed to give up the continuous researches on nitroglycerin, esp. its safety. He found that it could be absorbed dry with the diatomite; this kind of compound can be safely transported, so he began to research on how to improve the explosive and detonator. It explored again in experiment due to carelessness, and Nobel was hurt on whole body, but he was not dead fortunately.
The suddenness and carelessness of experiments were resulted from none-cognition of uncertain science, which make any scientists unable to safely and accurately judge the results of experiment. So some casual fruits can be found in scientific experiments while some disastrous events can also occur.
With the deeper and deeper exploration to the uncertain scientific fields, science will develop into higher and higher rank, and the scientific strengths resulted from higher science and technology are sure to be greater and greater. This kind of scientific strengths can benefit human being and also bring about destruction. When this rank reaches some certain level, it will have the ability to annihilate human being.
Unfortunately, scientist usually never take measure of annihilation human being as their researching goal except few abnormal persons, but results of scientific researches won’t work according to the intention of scientist. When one scientific experiment plan is carrying on, the former goal failed to reach but the other unexpected results are available, which is completely the case some time. Such kind of experiments failed to gain effective fruits and some destruction and disasters are completely possible to occur.
Anyway, in late long process of scientific developments, with our scientific researches will go into higher rank, the energies released by fruits of scientific researches will become bigger and bigger, so it may be completely possible to give evils and sins due to the un-expectation and carelessness.
Second, careless uses of scientific and technologic products
Uncertainty is one of basic characters of science and technology, many scientific and technologic products have been produced and used in great amount, but we are not sure about its function and safety. The practices tell us that scientific and technologic products may result into serious disaster when used some time. It is lucky that the level of scientific developments is not so high in present days, but science and technology will develop further till some certain level, then human being may face the result of extinction due to this carelessness.
There are many cases of disasters due to the careless uses of scientific and technologic products: we know that destroy of ozonosphere has attracted widely attentions of whole world in present days. Since it is resulted from use of Freon, whole world is adopting unified behaviors to limit and cancel the uses of Freon.
But Freon was advocated greatly by scientists when invented by DuPont, it was even apotheosized. Freon is nontoxic, incombustible and stable, no erosion to metal material, so it is widely used in refrigeration industry and other many fields. But it is unexpected that it is its stability that leads to the un-reverse destruction of ozonosphere.
Since the Chloro-fluoron-carbon disposed in refrigeration is very stable, it can float with air into sky, but it won’t decompose in stratosphere, where it meets the strong excitement of ultraviolet which is not filtered and the chlorine in Chloro-fluoron-carbon can be decomposed, and the decomposed chlorine will react with the unstable ozone, as a result, the ozone is spoiled.
Formation of ozonosphere is result of primary cultivation for several billion of years, also the protection Deity of lives on Earth. Only a careless use of a scientific and technologic products can produce great destruction, which won’t be completed with time of hundred years, this can show what a big disaster the careless uses of scientific and technologic products will result into.
Use of DDT also originated from such kind of carelessness. Muller of Swiss chemist started researches on pesticide since 1935. He uses DDT to test mosquito and insects etc. It showed that DDT has strong effect of killing insects, and this kind of compound is harmless to human being and livestock. Hence as first greatly used organic pesticide, DDT was widely used, and Muller gained Nobel Medical prize and physiology prize in 1948.
However, only ten years late, the negative effects of DDT showed, 人们 discovery after using DDT for a long time, those pests gained abilities to defend medicine, but the natural enemies of those pests have been killed, so the pests are more rampant. In addition, birds absorbed DDT when eating the pests; their eggs will have thin crust, which will result into death of child birds. So DDT has obvious harms to the biologic diversity. In the same time, human being is suffering DDT directly, after researches, DDT has the effects same with female sexual hormone, which can reduce the masculine nature of man and affect his fertilizing.
Due to mentioned series harms, DDT was banned to use by each country continuously. But since DDT is insoluble in water, its toxicity will reduce slowly, so though it was banned to use for over 20 years, the bodies of birds and human being have sometime DDT available, even the remote penguins in south pole have contained DDT it their bodies.
There are other cases including that there are some problems stay un-researched thoroughly, but they are produced greatly. This may result into the great destruction or extinctive powers. For example, combustible ice may result into such bad disaster if used carelessly.
The combustible ice is the water compound after combination of methane and water. It looks like ice, existing in the constant frozen earth layer in the bottom of sea. The bottom of sea with area of 400 million square meters, it covers 10% of total area of sea. An international judge shows that total combustible ice in whole Earth is equal to 2 or 3 times of total amount of coal, oil and natural gas of whole world, which can satisfy the energy uses of human being for 1000, so it is honored as one of most valuable energies.
But this kind of energy may give global disaster if explored carelessly. One unit of combustible ice can result into 164 units of methane, while the greenhouse effects of methane are equal to over 20 times of carbon dioxide, but it is very difficult to develop combustible ice. If one piece of combustible ice is moved from bottom to surface of sea, it will volatilize to none. Combustible ice deposit may result into leakage of great amount of methane even spoiled a little; esp. the combustible ice on the edge of land is more difficult. Once it breaks out, it will result into tsunami, seabed coast, sea water poisonization, while the sprayed methane will all enter the gas, and the global gas temperature will increase rapidly. If some countries really begin to develop combustible ice in great amount before the researches are mature, the results maybe beyond imagination.
After a scientific and technologic product was researched and produced, scientists are usually unable to completely accurately judge its absolute safety when used. The more complex is this scientific and technologic product and higher it is in scientific achievements, the more difficult to judge its safety level. In contrast, the higher is a kind of scientific and technologic product in its scientific achievements, the greater is its ability to destruct, this kind of great destructive strengths will have ability to annihilate human being sooner or later since the science and technology continues to develop into higher rank.
So we can see that when science and technology develops enough to have ability to annihilate human being, while the self annihilation of human being won’t be inevitable since some people with abnormal thinking may use the annihilation measure, the careless use of scientific and technologic products may result into human being annihilation. This conclusion can fully explain that due to uncertainty of science and technology, when the science and technology develops into some certain degrees, the uncertainty of science and technology will surely make us unable to avoid the fate of human being extinction in any measures. In order to avoid the human being annihilation, the only choice is to stop the developments of science and technology before it has the ability to annihilate human being.
A vivid parable is that there must be landmines in front, and further we go the landmines are more. These are the landmines of science and technology. If we can accurately know the position of these landmines, we can walk clear of them. But due to the uncertainty of science and technology, we don’t know their accurate positions, so if we continue to walk ahead, we are sure to meet the landmines. If we want to avoid touching the landmine, we should stop going further.
Section III Time for Human Being to Be Extinctive
Spoken essentially, as a kind of biologic species, human being has natural process of birth to death, and the natural strengths can annihilate any livings finally, including human being. According to analysis of chapter three, we can know that if we can receive what Nature offers, the human being will be annihilated after 5 billion of years. This is remote thing, so the remote disaster needs no worry.
Then, if the time for human being to annihilate is remote similarly, it needs no worries from us naturally. If the time is ten thousand years late, it even needs no further worries. But if the time is only 100 years or ten thousand years, we deserve worrying about, or we will be the great sinner in the history. We should give a serious analysis to time of human being extinction.
When the science reaches level of present days, the further technologic developments can’t depend on the direct experiences to solve the problem, while the scientific theories have been guides for the technology to progress. The combination of science to technology happened soon after Industrial Revolution when the great productivity of Industrial Revolution make various kinds of industries mushroomed, but soon people discovered that technologic practices were hard to improve more without guides of scientific theories. Only guides of scientific theories can make technologic invention and innovation a kind of rational process, and the level of productivity can improve faster and more advanced products can be possible to produce. Scientific theory has new breakthrough, people will normally explore the contents able to change into scientific and technologic products as possible as they can in the new theories.
Uncountable scientific and technologic practices can reflect this kind of objective fact: when an intermediate ranked subject has theoretical breakthrough, its produced series of scientific and technologic products can greatly change the lifestyle of people, while a big subject can change lives of whole world. These scientific and technologic products have contents of both benefiting and harming human being.
Due to mentioned causes, we can take breakthrough of scientific theory as main line to approximately deduce the time of human being annihilation.
Actually dependence of present scientific theories can deduce that the annihilation measure is sure to emerge, and the mentioned Nano robots which can be copied constantly and boost great small asteroid to hit Earth, and then result into holistic atomic combustion in sea or crust, all these are the annihilation measure and able to conclude according to present scientific theories. However, since the theoretical rank of present science is not so high, it is very difficult to research and produce relevant annihilation measure according to present level. So we need the theoretical breakthrough.
Since physics is in central position of field of Natural science, we can analyze the time for annihilation measure to occur according to the cyclic breakthrough and fission acceleration principles of science and technology with the reference of physics developments.
Fruits of Galileo are the mark of foundation of modern physics and first ranked revolutionary theories of modern physics cyclic breakthrough. According to the theory, the fruits of Galileo are sure to guide great developments of science and technology, humane society hence will change greatly. But it is not the case. The birth of this fruit failed to result into compound and comprehensive effects to humane society, because the birth of Galileo fruits was 1.5 centuries before Industrial Revolution when people failed to realize to utilize the scientific theories into technologic practices. This fruits failed to immediately develop into series of scientific and technologic products and boost the long-term developments of technologic practices, but this won’t show that first ranked revolutionary theories of modern physics have no great powers.
Newton mechanics is second ranked revolutionary theory of cyclic breakthrough of modern physics; after its foundation, its effects to human being world are obvious. This kind of effects cover many aspects, one most obvious one is the guide to the technologic practices. In aspect of practical guides, it is Newton mechanics that boot the further developments of Industrial Revolution, while the further developments of Industrial Revolution were unimaginative without Newton mechanics. The named second Industrial Revolution refers to the stage for the combination of scientific theories and technologic practices; this is a stage when Industrial Revolution has the explosive strengths. In this stage, among series scientific theories with most important guiding effects to technologic practices, Newton mechanics is sure the most important one.
But the guiding effects of Newton mechanics to technologic practices and essential effects to humane society can’t show immediately, there is a time difference of about 100 years. One cause is that there is a process for the theory to apply to practices and any theory needs time difference to implement its guiding effects; in addition, when Newton mechanics was founded, the idea of applying theory into technologic practices failed to be widely received. Though Industrial Revolution occurred half century after Newton mechanics was founded, people failed to realize the significance of combining science to technology till several dozens years late.
When we clearly see the profound changes of Industrial Revolution to humane society and fact of wealth produced by human being in these over 200 years had exceeded many times of total wealth produced in all former time, these can show that Newton mechanics and even revolutionary theories of field of physics can result into so great energies.
Relativism and quantum mechanics is the third ranked revolutionary theory of modern physics, this theory emerged in early 20 century. Since the scientific power of this theory is very great, so it is hard to move this kind of power. However, with mark of exploration of B-bomb, the third ranked revolutionary theory spent only about 40 years from birth to successful application, because people obviously realized the importance and possibilities of scientific theory to apply to technologic practices. Hence they devoted great passion to each aspect of scientific theory to applying in technologic practices, while people dared to invest in this aspect due to the obvious and unified realization.
The great power of three ranked cycling of modern physics can be clearly shown with only two examples: firstly, footprints of present human being have been on Moon, and the plan of walking on Mars is in preparation, while the spaceflight machines without humane driving has flied out of solar system and into deep place of universe. All these are in myth in old time. Secondly, present one h-bomb has power equal to TNT of over 56 million tons. What is this like? It shows that the power of one bomb is equal to that produced by explosive loaded in 1 million trains (they can surround one circle of Earth). The gaining of mentioned scientific and technologic fruits are mainly depending on relativism and quantum mechanics in aspect of main guiding theories.
According to mentioned analysis, if fourth ranked cycling of modern physics can have breakthrough, its technologic products guided by the revolutionary theories can easily result into annihilation measure, it is natural. The cause if that the three ranked revolutionary theories will result into the scientific and technologic products with strong destructive powers, which has the power nearly to annihilate human being. In addition, according to three ranked revolutionary theories, they can actually produce relevant annihilation measure, but it is technologically difficult to research and produce the annihilation measure guided by three ranked revolutionary theories, we can’t judge whether it can produce, but it is sure to produce.
Then, as a subject in the central position of natural sciences, physics of four ranked revolutionary theories has greater power than that of three ranked, which can add to abilities till it can annihilate human being.
Then how long will four ranked cycling of modern physics can have breakthrough?
It was not more than 100 years from foundation of first ranked revolutionary theory with representative of Galileo physics to second rank of Newton mechanics in modern physics. It was not more than 200 years from second ranked to three ranked.
Hence we can predict the cycle of fourth ranked modern physics according to these. Any scientific theory should need time to have breakthrough, it is process of uncountable scientific and technologic fruits to continuously accumulate and results of uncountable scientists to work hard for many years. The revolutionary theories of fourth ranked is much profound than that of third ranked, so the intermediate fruits needing by such kind of revolutionary theory is more than that of third revolution, and it naturally needs long time.
However, our thinking should not be so independently on problem. We know that scientific accumulation will show the principle of fission acceleration. With the further scientific and technologic development, science and technology is continuously forming branches, and the separated scientific subjects and technologic types are continuously detailed separated, and each scientific subject and technologic type have employed a group pf scientists to work in researches and develop according to principle of cycling breakthrough and continuously produce the fruits. Hence the accumulation speed of fruits of science and technology will be surely faster and faster, which supports the requirements of superior ranked science, so the scientific fruits will need more to accumulate and more time is needed.
Physics developments are following mentioned principle thoroughly. But we should consider character of modern physics in four ranked cycling breakthroughs. The relativism was founded one hundred years ago, with reference to former cycling period, it is natural for the four ranked cycling to realize after 1.5 centuries. With consideration to the time of theory to apply to practice, we can conclude as follows: annihilation measure is sure to result into with time of no more than 200 years.
The mentioned deduction is very conservative, for several obvious elements fail to include. According to present scientific theories, the deduced annihilation measure will emerge before further developments. In addition, scientific theories and science and technology are realizing breakthrough in other subjects and types. While the fields out of physics are mostly possible to result into annihilation measure, just like that present destructive measures of atomic weapons results of physics, but the gene poisonous elements are that of biology, so annihilation measures in other fields are sure to result into within 200 years.
The earliest annihilation measures are probably mastered in hands of countries, or several kind persons. But the principle of extreme measure“ three addition” tells us that with further scientific and technologic developments, the types of annihilation measure will become more and more, while the fields of mastering annihilation measures will become wider and wider. In addition, the types of annihilation measures will be mastered more and more by groups such as countries, but then develop into being mastered by individual, and sooner or later they will be mastered by person daring to use them.
In the same time, if the science and technology is still developing, after development ranks of scientific theories reach relevant level, the supported scientific experiment and scientific and technologic products are similarly possible to result into casual annihilation disasters. Careless experiments and uses of scientific and technologic products may result into human being extinction, it is as risky as using annihilation measure on the human being, so when the annihilation measure appears, its annihilation powers are possibly emerging at any time. This kind of power will possibly explore, which is our concern to some people with mental disorders, they may use these measures purposely. There are scientist using casually experiments and uses of scientific and technologic products. So once annihilation measure emerges, holistic fate of human being is in dangerous, it will be very difficult to save human being.
Anyway, we can estimate a time of exploration of annihilation powers: review the use time of extreme measures in each historic times, such as the atomic weapons of present days, they are used in wars after researched out. Transgenic biological poisonous elements are not used yet, because it was just produced after dozen of years. The mentioned measures were used soon after produced, while some were used slowly, and the time was only several dozen of years.
Of course the annihilation measure are essentially different with former extreme measures, since the user may perish together when using this kind of measure, so the rational person or person with no intention of destruction won’t use this kind of measure positively. In addition, this kind of measure is comprehensively disastrous to whole human being, so when this kind of measure emerges, each rational authoritative institution may have the control abilities further stronger than other extreme measures. This is the factor for which this kind of measure is not easy to use, which this factor determines that the time to use this kind of measure will be postponed a lot.
But with the postponed time, other factors will be easier and easier to give the annihilation powers:
Firstly, with the science and technology developing into further stage, new annihilation measures will emerge more and more, and it will show following trends:① with the guiding of newer and higher ranked scientific theories, research and production of annihilation measure will become easier and easier;② under the guiding of newer and higher ranked scientific theories, the researched and produced annihilation measures will have stronger powers, while the earliest annihilation measure may need use several or dozen times to annihilate human being, while the new annihilation measure can ends whole human being when used only one time; ③under the guiding of newer and higher ranked scientific theories, the annihilation measures will become smaller and smaller and easier to be portable and convenient, esp. suitable for individual operation. It is like the earliest computer needing a big room to accommodate, but present small computer can be taken in pocket with the more computing abilities. Series of this kind of characters make the annihilation measure easier and easier to be taken and used by individuals.
Secondly, scientific theories can be utilized to the production of killing measures and the civil products. Since the science and technology is uncertain, each scientific theory can’t be completely accurate and safe. When scientific theories develop till the level of supporting annihilation measure, the power of civil products produced under this theoretical guide will be similarly great. On the basic of this, if scientific theories develop further, the power it results into may be greater. So careless uses of products or careless scientific experiments may release 1% and even 0.1% of total powers, but this is enough to eliminate whole human being.
Thirdly, with the movements of time, even strength of annihilation measure is greater; it may become loose some time. But in contrary, there are bad guys who want to revenge society in any time of this world; their revenge desire won’t weaken because of your loose controls to annihilation measures. In contrary, the longer the time, and the stronger the desire to revenge when the controls are loose and find the extreme measure, while there are surely some people to get the extreme measures.
Each mentioned case determines that with the shift of time, the annihilation power is easier to occur. But we still define the annihilation powers as very long, e.g. 300 years after emerging earliest annihilation measure. It can be guessed that human being annihilation will occur within 500 years.
300 years for the annihilation power to explore is an estimate, while its foundation is to consider the case of humane history killing measure to be used no more than 50/60 years when used, in equal, one kinds of extreme measure will emerge within 10 or 20 years. Considering that the uses of annihilation measure are much longer than other extreme measures, according to this ratio, we can conclude that it will cost 300 years. This conclusion is very conservative of course, spoken simply, it just thinks about the time of earliest annihilation measure to use. Of course after the earliest annihilation measure emerged, with continuous scientific and technologic developments, there will be various kinds of different annihilation measures appearing, while these annihilation measures are easier to produce and gain and convenient to use, so its extinctive powers are surely easier to carry on. But the after annihilation measures fail to consider their extinctive power.
Totally, the estimate of human being to be extinctive within 500 years is very conservative. It has considered double conservative factors: the estimated time of annihilation measure is conservative. In addition, according to logic judge, Industrial Revolution was thing over 200 years before, when it first occurred, science and technology started on the base of almost none. After it develops till now, universal airship can send us on Moon, while modern transportation and communication technology has joined whole world into a whole, and the big-scaled computer can compute over total amount of humane brains since history of human being, and atomic bomb and the gene biologic weapons have improved several million times of destructive powers. On the base of such great power, it will develop 500 years; it is equal to double time since Industrial Revolution to present days. In this period, the scientific and technologic developments are based on great amount of knowledge and developments of advanced scientific researching measures and scientific researching ways besides the fact that the investments of materials and finances are more than total amount of early time. According to fission accumulation principle, we can know that present scientific and technologic developments are much more than those of yesterday, even two times of the time needed by Industrial Revolution, so we can see that how many fruits it can produce on the base of scientific and technologic developments.
Hence, if the science and technology continues to develop, human being annihilation will be much earlier than conservative estimate of 500 years.
Deduction of time for human being extinction gives us a very important inspiration, which is that it is time for us to adopt measures to strictly limit the scientific and technologic developments.
Appearance of annihilation measure will be not late than 200 years, and human being annihilation 500, these mean that it is not too early for us to adopt the measures to limit scientific and technologic developments. Since many scientific discoveries were casual ones, so were many technological fruits, while Nature gives us very long time, then only a few casual discoveries and gains will become great when accumulated. After science and technology has developed such level, with addition to fact that a few of accumulation to the technologic and scientific fruits can push human being into abysm of annihilation. Moreover, there are so many accumulations.
It is a regret that the limitation of wisdom of human being made us have the mentality of no affirmation and feeling of being numb to development, and human being is not conscious to their circumstances. So the great destructive power of science and technology fails to realize, as for each emerging scientific and technologic achievement and arranging scientific and technologic researching and developing project, even the elite politician and scientist fails to realize its negative effects and harms, and the adoption of the essential defensive measures is a very remote thing. Humane elites care more about enjoyments of various kinds of fruits brought about by science to human being, as for the various kinds of measures adopted; they just cure the obvious diseases. As for that the science is sure to result into extinctive disasters, any authoritative leaders fail to realize essentially.
The time to leave human being to think is not so much indeed.
Section IV Inspiration of Extra-terrestrial:
Philosophic Deduction of Self Annihilation
With generation to former analysis, we can conclude same on various kinds of perspectives, e.g. if the science and technology develops according to present state, human being is sure to be annihilated by science and technology, and the time is not too far. So if we want to save human being, we should limit science and technology to develop further.
The mentioned conclusions are based on various kinds of definite objective conditions, for example, actual case of human being and humane society, actual characters and principles of the science and technology and the science and technology developments etc. But the self annihilation of human being can be concluded from aspect of philosophy besides obvious and complete attestation with the objective conditions, while the foundation of such conclusion is the consideration to living out of Earth.
As a planet moving round Sun, Earth which we live on is part of system of Sun. Sun is in Milky Way galaxy which has about 200 billion fixed stars, so Milky Way galaxy is very common, while whole universe has about 300 billion galaxies, so we can see that how minor we are. However, Earth has cultivated human being, such kind of life with so high wisdom. Since the universe is very great, any thing of small probability can occur. So we should believe that there must be other life existing in universe besides human being.
Researches to solar system can determine that Sun is not fixed star of first generation after Universe came into shape, even not second generation. Universe was born about 1.5 billion years before, while solar system only 5. Due to the grandness of Universe, we can guess that fixed star systems of second generation should have life of higher wisdom. We can see that the fixed star system able to cultivate life should emerge 10 billion years ago. With reference to solar system, which is that human being emerged 5 billion years after formation of Sun, so we can guess that wise life has a cultivation period of 5 billion years in a fixed star system which has developed 5 billion years. With a standard of 10-5 billion years, wise life should emerge 5 billion years ago. If so, after developments of 5 billion years, life of such kind of high wisdom should have abilities to travel in whole Universe. But there are no such kind of accurate proves to prove that there were extra-terrestrial visiting Earth.
Earth is a blue celestial body with special marks in Universe, suitable for life to exist. The wise life who is 5 billion year advanced should know this. In addition, the original life appeared on Earth 3.8 billion years ago, which can show that Earth then had the conditions for life to survive. If the most attractive Earth failed to be visited by extra-terrestrial in 3.8 billion years, there are possible 3 kinds of causes: the distance between fixed stars is too far to be accessible the science and technology of any advanced level can’t realize the travel among fixed stars; extra-terrestrial got extinct before developing enough to travel out of their planets; extra-terrestrial stop continuous science and technology developments positively, they live comfortably on their own planet, so they have no abilities to travel among spaces.
As for the first speculation, chapter three and chapter four have depicted. Here we will give analysis to another perspective.
People on Earth have abilities to fly into spaces after developments for several ten thousand years, and they can fly further out of solar system after several years. In fact detector of human being has flied out of solar system, if life 5 billion years earlier than us can survive now, they are sure to have ability to travel in spaces. They may fail to visit Earth in great amount, but they can visit here in several persons. But all these failed to occur. So we should focus on later 2 possibilities.
Let’s analyze second possibility; extra-terrestrial was extinct before evolving into level of traveling in spaces. But what was the cause of extinction? Was it natural power of Universe? (Such as the crash of asteroid and the devouring of black hole)?
Careful analysis tells that this possibility is not so big since a planet able to produce superior livings is sure to be stable, so the natural power of Universe should cost 100 million years to develop so much as to threat and annihilate superior livings. After developments of several hundred of million of years, extra-terrestrial is sure to be able to travel in spaces and avoid its annihilation. In addition, if there is one unlucky planet failed to survive till having abilities of saving itself, not all other planets are sure to have the same fate as this. In such a grand Universe, the planets able to cultivate life should amount to great number.
So we can only imagine that these extra-terrestrials were annihilated by themselves. We can give such a judgment as for nature of Earth: unbalanced evolvement is common principle of all superior lives in Universe. After a kind of wise life evolves, its abilities of discovering and changing Nature will spur abruptly in some time, and then have and master abilities of annihilating itself in very short time. But they can’t complete the evolvement of controlling their own behaviors (that is the delay of rational evolvement lags behind creativity one), then, with the production of annihilation power, they can’t control effectively the uses to this kind of power, or unwilling to control this kind of power even if they know they can, as a result, if this kind of power can be moved one time, the annihilation will happen. It is perhaps this kind of inherent power in the Universal balance that results into this; this is character of a kind of principle.
With combination to the development history and inherent characters of human being on Earth, the mentioned speculation is sure to occur. Though concept of human being came into shape over 200 years ago, human being has completed its evolvement in recent 50000 years, but since Industrial revolution of 200 years ago, human being was stepping into a period of conscious discovering and changing Nature. During this period, the world changed greatly almost in each interval of 10-20 years, while the speed of change was hundred o even ten thousand times of old time. So we can say that the world must change greatly 100 years late. Each kind of scientific and technologic fruits produced by human being will replace many things of present days, similarly, new sciences and technologies will produce unimaginable ability to destroy.
But in history of over 200 years when many changes occurred, the irrational parts of human nature failed to change a little, and no marks of changes were available. Short-sight, greedy and hatred of human being failed to improve due to improvements of its destructive abilities. That is to say, abilities of human being to change Nature changed abruptly in some certain time and become very strong, while human being has the abilities to rationally control themselves lag behind those of changing Nature, depicted from aspect of biological evolvement, that is the rational evolvement of human being lags behind of their creativity. It is this kind of lag that makes human being unable to control the uses to this kind of annihilation power when casually found their own powers sooner or later, or during the casual or planned scientific researches may result into exploration of extinctive powers but they failed to control the limitation to scientific and technologic developments purposely. So there will be some day when human being annihilates themselves due to this kind of time difference between the abilities of changing Nature and controlling its own abilities rationally.
If this is same with extra-terrestrial and it follows same natural principle, it maybe the cause why we failed to meet them.
The third possibility is that the extra-terrestrial may positively stop developments of science and technology and avoid the fate of annihilation, but they have no abilities of traveling in spaces. And then what causes this kind of behavior of extra-terrestrial?
We can think that the extra-terrestrial may have same society as on Earth, during the process of scientific and technologic development, they are enjoying the fruits produced by science and technology and meet the destruction brought about by science and technology frequently. But with science and technology developing into higher rank, its produced destruction may become bigger and bigger. Till one day they realized after consideration that they were doomed to annihilate if kept continuous developments, so they came to themselves to stop the scientific and technologic development and found relevant institutions to guarantee the strict limitation to the scientific and technologic developments. So they stopped the developments of science and technology, and the extra-terrestrial failed to gain the abilities of traveling in paces through the scientific and technologic measures, and they are willing to live peaceful, quiet and happy lives. As a result, we on Earth fail to have chance to meet them.
Since the Universe is very grand, there must be a lot of extra-terrestrial, so the mentioned two kinds of cases are sure to happen on different planets of livings.
It is true that we failed to see the extra-terrestrial and know the planets which the extra-terrestrial can live on, so the mentioned conclusions are just relevant speculation with the philosophic thinking according to some phenomena. But they are combined with the characters of human being on Earth, although they are not absolutely true, they should be very convincing.
This subjective speculation matches completely the former conclusion, which further strengthens the attestation of former conclusion, so we can see more clearly the fate of human being and the future of humane society, and then we have clearer realization to later choices of development roads.
With analysis to extra-terrestrial, we can think as follows: in present days we have reached Moon, so we can reach Mars in middle part of this century, and many detectors of human being are flying into other remote planets from different directions, and they flied out of solar system. It seems to be positive to estimate that human being will have mastered the technology to travel in spaces soon.
However, due to analysis to extra-terrestrial, we can conclude as follows: life of superior wisdom may be annihilated by science and technology before they gain technology of traveling in spaces. If this is not the case, the extra-terrestrial would be sure to visit Earth through flights among planets. This can give a strong inspiration as follows: level of science and technology will reach the level of meeting requirement of annihilating human being before they can travel among planets. This is to say that in present days, if our science and technology continues to develop, human being extinction will occur late and not so far. This conclusion also matches the deduced time of human being annihilation.