(Note: this is E-mail and attached letter sent by a reader in Hong Kong, and then I sent him a reply.)
Mr. Hu Jiaqi,
Half of one year passed since I drafted this letter. The financial crisis is still spreading and extending, but no economists or politicians gave such kinds of questions such as civilization replacement, market malfunction and scientific and technological over-production, especially not the third question I have asked you. My opinions were not accurate, perhaps, but I'm sure not naive.
2th Apr 2009, Lee, Hong Kong.
Mr. Hu Jiaqi,
After reading your book On the Extinction of Mankind, I want to add some views besides my shocking feelings, which will be an actual support to the final extinction of human beings after 200-500 years.
The prevailing global financial tsunami has vaporized uncountable wealth, but this is just the beginning. There are numerous causes for this disaster, but one is that the wealth produced by science and technology in the 21st century is almost over 100 times of that produced by investors and producers. This kind of "action of third party" can't join society to benefit human beings since they are unable to distribute. It hinders market reproduction, and the wild finances are extended from markets to markets, the material productions are inspired to increase, and the ecology is spoiled. All supervision, rationality, nations and countries are not only weak and incapable but help the evil to do evil things and try to do all things of greed, selfishness and fatuity in front of this wild scientific production, this gigantic monster.
In a short time of 10 years when the internet became popular, humane controls to time and space and cost decreased freedom, and global economy have all exceeded the excellence of industrial time. We are in an information era with the direct economy. Information allocation can replace resource allocation, confidence economy commodity economy. Production process is short and instant, but most physical laborers and investors are marginized rapidly, despised and played with by scientific wealth.
For example, Buffet, Gates and Soros etc, are the origins and beneficiaries of scientific wealth production, but even they are shocked by the distorted abilities to product wealth and the devastating abilities which are continuously releasing energies. They shouted that "It's hard to meet one time in 100 years".
It is the simplest description; its rich contents are the same with your book On Extinction of Mankind. What you worry about has occurred. But the expected results are: humanity chooses the way of "market extinction and civilization decline" and then lives on Earth calmly. This kind of economy is named as "ecological economy" temporarily.
However, ecological civilization and direct economy different from industrial civilization and indirect economy can't feed 6.7 billion people on Earth. This is the population produced for the capital to pursue profits, balanced with scales of petroleum, coal, steel and production-consumption. Once industrial civilization ends, the form of capital will expire, too. Population and productivity must become extinct. Presently, direct results of this financial tsunami are these two extinctions. It starts with the extinction of capitalists to common people.
Is capital and industrial time willing to retreat from humane history and stage? Will population be like tidewater, having newborns of 80 million each year?
There is one and only one war, the plague should start to work, and these are for petroleum, for water, or for what excuse?
Lee Gang, Hong Kong, 20th Oct 2008
(my reply on 20th Apr 2009)
Mr. Lee Gang,
Glad to meet you! Thank you for the letter; I give my opinions as for your questions:
I believe that the developments of human societies have total error in their direction. There are only 200 million people in the early time of the industrial revolution, and now almost 7 billion. Population consumption and population pollution of ten times surely result into a problem of exhaustion of un-reproducible resources and irreversible environmental problems. What deserves more worry is continuous economic increases with supports of sciences and technologies, which results in the personal consumption of today being several dozen and even several hundred times that of 200 years ago. All these can tell us that on the basis of a population growth of 10 times, the consumption and relevant pollution should be several hundred and even several thousand times multiplied. We can have a simple consideration and then know that Earth can't maintain survival of human beings for a long time. As for the resolution to this problem, I have published one book in Hong Kong by the name of Saving Mankind (Collected Edition); its last half depicts my detailed consideration and analysis. I can depict several points here:
Firstly, what will present economy lead to if continuing present development tendency? Social development is not equal to economic development, only stable and continuous economy is the condition for human beings to survive for a long time.
Secondly, the global population must decrease to a level whose survival the reproductive resources can maintain on Earth, which will tell us that global population should not exceed 1 billion, 500 million best.
Thirdly, present society cannot realize mentioned goals, so we should realize global unification. It is time for a nation-country today. Conflicts and competition among countries make each country independently think about its own businesses and develop with irrationality. Only unified world regime can think about and treat the crucial problem of the whole world rationally on the basis of benefits for all humanity.
Due to my busy works, I can only give you such a short answer, pardon me.
20th Apr 2009
(Reply of reader on 21st Apr 2009)
Mr. Hu Jiaqi,
I'm very grateful that you could answer me during your busy works. I'm an industrial investment foundation researcher, so I consider the horrible surplus from the economic view, which is destroying whole market system. But I know not too much about the social and scientific presentation, so I will read your mails carefully like your book.
When will this result into a unified global government? Is cooperated control of China and America of this time a start or model?
I expect more chances to read your great books.
Lee Gang, 21st Apr 2009